ADVANCED PREDICTIVE MODELING · NBA & WNBA PLAYER PROPS

Their models set the lines.
Ours find the mistakes.

16 seasons of NBA data. Nearly 150,000 graded props.
When the math disagrees with the sportsbooks, we bet.

Join the waitlist See the Record or get the free card on X →
NO PARLAYS. NO LOTTO TICKETS. JUST MATH.
THE RECORD

Season to date.

Every pick →
SEASON UNITS
—
1 unit = 1% of bankroll
ROI
—
Profit per dollar bet. Long-term sharp bettors land around 3–5%.
AVG CLOSING-LINE VALUE
—
Did the market move our way?
PICKS GRADED
0
Every one listed, nothing removed
Units over time
SEASON TO DATE
The record starts with the first card on NBA opening night, Tuesday, Oct 20.
FOUNDING MEMBERS

Memberships open later this season. Get in first.

Join the waitlist to lock in founding member pricing before it opens to everyone. The free card on X isn't going anywhere.

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THE CARD

Every game night at 4:30 PM ET.

The full card goes out on X with the line, the price and the books it's available at. Some nights it's a handful of plays. Some nights it's none. Late games get their own card before tip-off.

The next morning, every pick is graded here, wins and losses, in the same place.

TONIGHT'S CARDPOSTED 4:30 PM ET
The first card posts on NBA opening night, Tuesday, Oct 20.
HOW IT WORKS

From raw data to a priced edge.

Every day, every player prop on the slate runs through the same four-stage pipeline, built to find the lines the sportsbooks got wrong.

01FORECAST

Project

Machine-learning models trained on every NBA game since 2010 forecast each player's role and production for tonight, factoring in pace, rest, opponent defense and how injuries reshape the rotation.

02DISTRIBUTION

Simulate

Each forecast becomes a full probability distribution of the stat line, not a single number, calibrated against years of real outcomes.

03DE-VIG

Price

Every sportsbook's line is converted to a probability and the vig is removed to find the market's fair price. Then it's our number against theirs, prop by prop, book by book.

04EXECUTE

Filter

Only edges that clear a strict threshold, at prices you can actually bet, make the card. Every pick is tracked against the closing line, and the models are retrained every week.

HOW THE RECORD WORKS

Built to be checked.

If a record can't be checked, it doesn't count. Here's exactly how ours is kept.

  • Timestamped. Every pick is logged the moment it's posted, with the line and price at that time.
  • Graded at the posted line. Never a better number found later.
  • Nothing deleted. A pick can only be pulled publicly before its game starts. After tip-off it counts.
  • Voids match the books. If a player doesn't play, the pick is void, the same way the sportsbooks grade it.
  • Closing-line value. We track whether the market moved toward our side by tip-off. Consistently beating the close is the clearest sign of a real edge.

NO PARLAYS. NO LOTTO TICKETS. JUST MATH.

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